Assessing what appears to be the use of LAMP in Eduardo Gamarra’s CVA

In January 2003, Eduardo Gamarra and his research team set out to lend their professional and academic expertise in mitigating the probable causes of Bolivian conflicts through the Conflict Vulnerability Assessment or CVA of Bolivia (Gamarra, 2003, p. 1). Assessing the possible causes of conflicts in Bolivia will stop the ongoing threats to countrywide instability.The Bolivian instability may have started and peeked during the 2002 elections where parties started to clamor for position by entering into party coalitions; due to this, the majority vote that should have been echoed as the Bolivian democracy has been counterproductive to insure the satisfaction of party coalition based interests (Gamarra, 2003, p. 4). Through the CVA, Gamarra deems that it is possible to predict possible events that could turn into violent confrontations by taking into account the premises set by the present Bolivian political landscape.In relation to the main objectives of this research paper, Eduardo G amarra’s preemptive and predictive research to address future Bolivian conflicts will be assessed through the methodology that Gamarra employed in his research. As of this point, Gamarra’s CVA appears to employ predictive methodologies in its attempts to prevent the occurrence of violent confrontations in Bolivia. Furthermore, CVA appears to follow conventions of predictive research such as those prescribed in LAMP. As the center of this research paper, Lockwood Analytical Method of Prediction (LAMP) is one of the widely used predictive research methodologies (LAMP, 2010, p.n. pag. ). This methodology offers a new methodological approach from the conventional quantity based projections in predictive researches (LAMP, 2010, p. n. pag. ). LAMP can be assumed as the methodology used by Gamarra in CVA since CVA is also highly predictive in terms of its generalizations. This research paper will assess whether Gamarra’s CVA as a predictive work follows the guidelines set by LAMP. By qualifying the CVA parts and foci with the twelve steps prescribed in LAMP, this paper seeks to fulfill its objective and deems that a definitive conclusion is possible to arrive at. Gamarra as a follower of LAMP as seen in his CVATo conclusively qualify whether Gamarra used the LAMP method in writing the CVA would require the tedious work of identifying whether the part of the LAMP are present in the CVA. This task is impeded by the fact that the final format of the CVA does not have the same labels as the LAMP; at least not as blatant. However, the idea that Gamarra used the LAMP in his CVA can be seen through the parts that his CVA put so much attention on (which follows LAMP prescriptions). These parts appears to have been presented in the CVA; these parts entails almost fifty percent accordance to the prescribe methodology in LAMP.In the whole CVA, the issue that holds the most bearing is the mitigation and prevention of conflicts in Bolivia. Gamarra and his tea m was more than solid in reiterating that the CVA will focus on Bolivia as a conflict prone country. This is the reason why Gamarra and his team spent a lot of time in trying to predict the possibilities of the occurrence of conflicts. Through the extensive research facts presented in the paper, it can even be said that the whole CVA seeks to answer one primary question, â€Å"What are the probable reasons that would cause conflicts to arise in Bolivia?† The CVA tried to find the answer for this question by grouping the conflicts in Bolivia in five major classifications, institutional, economic, land, coca/cocaine, and citizen and public security (Gamarra, 2003, p. 4). In the CVA, Gamarra and his team identified two major actors that can very much affect the outcome of the conflict resolution and mitigation in Bolivia- government and opposition. The MNR or Nationalist Revolutionary Movement represents the government; while the MAS or Movimiento al Socialismo leads the opposit ion. CVA attributed that these parties are the main actors in the Bolivian politics and conflicts.Misunderstandings and apathy between these two parties can easily translate the strong political divide to violent confrontations (Gamarra, 2003, p. 4). However, the CVA did not dismiss the possibility that the 2002 elections can also improve the conflict situation through these parties (Gamarra, 2003, p. 4). The government and the opposition perceive the issues of conflict in terms of their participations on the issues. The government side pride themselves in terms of the international economic and security support it has (Gamarra, 2003, p. 6).On the other hand, the opposition takes pride in the intermediation they are able to contribute to the conflict resolution process (Gamarra, 2003, p. 6). In the CVA Gamarra and his team provided contextualizing facts that would put the MAS led opposition and MNR led government in their places in the conflict situation. This attempt can be seen wi th the graphical representation that Gamarra and his team presented to show the divided opinions of the national actors regarding the appropriate type of government in Bolivia (Gamarra, 2003, p. 14).Gamarra further contextualized the conflicts in terms of the partisan opinion in considering the plausibility of military uprising (coup d’etat) in installing new types of government that parties see as more fitting to Bolivia (Gamarra, 2003, p. 12). Even if Gamarra and his team are loyal to LAMP in these parts of CVA, there are other parts of CVA that show that the CVA was not exclusively written through LAMP. The Contradictions, Shortcomings and Disloyalties of CVA to LAMP As said earlier, the CVA appears to be written through the LAMP; this can hold for the almost fifty percent of the CVA.However, in terms of the data gathering and presentation part of the CVA Gamarra and his team took a different path apart from LAMP. This claim can be supported with the different formulation of the conflict scenarios in the CVA when compared to the LAMP. In LAMP, the permutations of the alternative futures (z) follow a strict formula XY=Z that is determined by the number of actors (x) and the numbers of major scenarios (y) (LAMP, 2010, p. n. pag. ). The formula basis of LAMP insures uniformity in terms of the numbers of scenarios that would be required in predicting through certain national actors.In the CVA there are five major scenarios provided (counter narcotics, political institutions, citizen and public security, economic arena and land ownership). Raising the two identified actors by the five major scenarios will require thirty-two scenarios. On the other hand, the CVA was only able to provide 16 scenarios under the five major scenarios. Another shortcoming of the CVA was its failure to conduct proper pair wise comparison among the scenarios; this resulted to different scenarios provided under the five major scenarios.The scenarios of citizen and public security have four scenarios as compared to the three scenarios of all of the remaining major scenarios (counter- narcotics, political institutions, economic arena and land ownership. Due to the absence of a pair wise comparing mechanism, the CVA also lacks the qualifications of probabilities that are determined through â€Å"votes† from comparing pair wise. These characteristics of the CVA deviated by twenty- five percent from the total twelve steps prescribed in LAMP.On the other hand, CVA delivered the remaining twenty-five percent of LAMP in accordance to the prescriptions of LAMP. Gamarra and his team provided the needed information to establish consequential analysis, which the step 9 of LAMP prescribed. The steps 10, 11 and 12 are also included in the CVA through the imaginative conclusion presented in the CVA. The high dependency rate of the Gamarra and his team’s conclusion with the numbers presented by the graphical representations follow the predictive nature of LAMP . Conclusion and RecommendationsTaking into account all of the investigations presented in this research paper it can be concluded that the Conflict Vulnerability Assessment of Bolivia is a hybrid research in terms of the methodologies it employed. The seventy five percent of the CVA was written in accordance with LAMP, but the twenty five percent of CVA does not coincide with the quantitative requirements of LAMP. The difference between LAMP and the methodology employed in CVA does not imply that the CVA is a failed predictive research. CVA’s use of different methods only show the flexibility that Gamarra and his team sought to establish in the CVA.Given this conclusion, this paper would recommend improvements for the two major aspects of the CVA- structure and methodology. It is recommendable that the CVA would use a paper structure or format that is more accessible in answering specific aspects of predictive research. The current arrangement of the CVA tends to make the is sue of Bolivian conflict too broad to discuss and even solve. The discussions without the recommended segmentation appear not only to be reiterating but also to be too general since the reference focal points overlap each other (as seen in the presentation of the scenarios).On the other hand, the methodology employed with the CVA appears to be improvable in terms of making the quantitative aspect of the methodology isolated and only catered as additional empirical references. A qualitative research method is probably more fitting to the undeniable culture sensitive and politics laden conflicts in Bolivia. Eduardo Gamarra and his team could have broken away from the conventions of quantitative predictive research by providing more vivid narrative accounts of the current and predicted conflict situations instead of standing on the methodological position of LAMP.The quantitative elaborateness in LAMP makes the quantitative shortcomings in CVA either half-truths or irrelevant; both pro babilities could have avoided if the CVA was treated as a qualitative research. Bibliography Gamarra, E. A. (2003). Conflict Vulnerability Assessment Bolivia. Retrieved August 5, 2010, from www. digitalcommons. flu. edu: http://digitalcommons. fiu. edu/cgi/viewcontent. cgi? article=1002&context=laccwps LAMP. (2010). The Application of LAMP. Retrieved August 5, 2010, from www. lamp-method. org: http://www. lamp-method. org/2. html